Development of Clinical Algorithm Utilizing Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography to Detect Advanced Hepatic Fibrosis in Liver Transplant Recipients.

INTRODUCTION: Vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) based liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is an excellent 'rule-out' test for advanced hepatic fibrosis in liver transplant (LT) recipients, however, its ability to 'rule-in' the disease is suboptimal. The study aimed to improve diagnostic performance of LSM in LT recipients.

METHODS: Adult LT recipients with a liver biopsy and VCTE were included (N = 150). Sequential covering analysis was performed to create rules to identify patients at low or high risk for advanced fibrosis (stage 3-4).

RESULTS: Advanced hepatic fibrosis was excluded in patients with either LSM < 7.45 kPa (n = 72) or 7.45 ≤ LSM < 12.1 kPa and time from LT < 5.6 years (n = 25). Conversely, likelihood of advanced fibrosis was 95% if patients had LSM > 14.1 and controlled attenuation parameter > 279 dB/m (n = 21). Thus, 118 (79%) were correctly identified and 32 (21%) would have required a biopsy to establish the diagnosis. Compared to previously established LSM based cutoff values of 10.5 kPa (Youden index) and 13.3 kPa (maximized specificity), the false positive rates of sequential covering analysis was 1% compared to 16.5% with LSM ≥ 10.5 kPa and 8.3% with LSM ≥ 13.3 kPa. The true positive rates were comparable at 87% for sequential covering analysis, 93% for LSM ≥ 10.5 kPa and 83% for LSM ≥ 13.3 kPa.

CONCLUSION: The proposed clinical sequential covering analysis allows for better risk stratification when evaluating for advanced fibrosis in LT recipients compared to LSM alone. Additional efforts are necessary to further reduce the number of patients with indeterminate results in whom a liver biopsy may be required.