Success Predictors of Endoscopic Sleeve Gastroplasty.

OBJECTIVE: Endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG) is a minimally invasive procedure that proved to be safe and effective in obesity treatment. However, not all subjects respond to treatment in the same way, and, with a view to personalized care, it is essential to identify predictors of success or failure.

METHODS: A retrospective 2-year followed-up cohort of ESG subjects was analyzed to investigate the presence of any baseline or early indicators of long-term optimal or suboptimal ESG outcomes.

RESULTS: A total of 315 subjects (73% women) were included, with 73% of patients exhibiting an Excess weight loss percentage (%EWL) >25% at the 24 months. Neither demographic parameters (age and sex), smoking habits, and menopause in women nor the presence of comorbidities proved potential predictive value. Interestingly, the %EWL at 1 month after ESG was the strongest predictor of 24-month therapeutic success. Subsequently, we estimated an "early threshold for success" for 1 month-%EWL by employing Youden's index method.

CONCLUSIONS: ESG is a safe and effective bariatric treatment that can be offered to a wide range of subjects. Early weight loss seems to impact long-term ESG results significantly and may allow proper early post-operative care optimization.