Predicting Long-Term Endothelial Cell Loss after Preloaded Descemet Membrane Endothelial Keratoplasty in Fuchs' Endothelial Corneal Dystrophy: A Mathematical Model.

(1) Background : This study offers a biexponential model to estimate corneal endothelial cell decay (ECD) following preloaded "endothelium-in" Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK) in Fuchs' endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD) patients; (2) Methods : A total of 65 eyes undergoing DMEK alone or combined with cataract surgery were evaluated. The follow-up period was divided into an early phase (first 6 months) and a late phase (up to 36 months). Endothelial cell count (ECC) and endothelial cell loss (ECL) were analyzed; (3) Results : The half time of the ECD was 3.03 months for the early phase and 131.50 months for the late phase. The predicted time-lapse interval to reach 500 cells/mm2 was 218 months (18.17 years), while the time-lapse interval to reach 250 cells/mm2 was 349 months (29.08 years). There was no statistically significant difference between the ECL in DMEK combined with cataract extraction and DMEK alone at 24 months ( p ≥ 0.20). At the late phase, long-term ECL prediction revealed a lower ECC half time in patients undergoing DMEK combined with cataract surgery (98.05 months) than DMEK alone (250.32 months); (4) Conclusions : Based on the mathematical modeling, a predicted average half-life of a DMEK graft could reach 18 years in FECD. Moreover, combining cataract extraction with DMEK could result in excessive ECL in the long term.