Prediction of occult peritoneal metastases or positive cytology using CT in gastric cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Accurate prediction of preoperative occult peritoneal metastasis (OPM) is critical to selecting appropriate therapeutic regimen for gastric cancer (GC). Considering the clinical practicability, we develop and validate a visible nomogram that integrates the CT images and clinicopathological parameters for the individual preoperative prediction of OPM in GC.

METHODS: This retrospective study included 520 patients who underwent staged laparoscopic exploration or peritoneal lavage cytology (PLC) examination. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression results were used to screen model predictors and construct nomograms of OPM risk. The performance of the model was detected by using ROC, accuracy, and C-index. The bootstrap resampling method was considered internal validation of the model. The Delong test was used to evaluate the difference in AUC between the two models.

RESULTS: Grade 2 mural stratification, tumor thickness, and the Lauren classification diffuse were significant predictors of OPM (p < 0.05). The nomogram of these three factors (compared with the original model) showed a higher predictive effect (p < 0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.830 (95% CI 0.788-0.873), and the internally validated AUC of 1000 bootstrap samples was 0.826 (95% CI 0.756-0.870). The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 76.0%, 78.8%, and 78.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: CT phenotype-based nomogram demonstrates favorable discrimination and calibration, and it can be conveniently used for preoperative individual risk rating of OPM in GC.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: In this study, the preoperative OPM prediction model based on CT images (mural stratification, tumor thickness) combined with pathological parameters (the Lauren classification) showed excellent predictive ability in GC, and it is also suitable for clinicians to use rather than limited to professional radiologists.

KEY POINTS: • Nomogram based on CT image analysis can effectively predict occult peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer (training area under the curve (AUC) = 0.830 and bootstrap AUC = 0.826). • Nomogram model combined with CT features performed better than the original model (established using only clinicopathological parameters) in differentiating occult peritoneal metastasis of gastric cancer.