Application of a Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Subchorionic Hematoma in Early Pregnancy With In Vitro Fertilization-Embryo Transfer/Frozen Embryo Transfer.

Background: Subchorionic hematoma (SCH) is common in early pregnancy achieved by in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer/frozen embryo transfer (IVF-ET/FET), and is associated with adverse obstetric outcomes. However, there are no methods known to accurately predict the occurrence of SCH.

Objective: To establish a nomogram prediction model for predicting the risk of SCH in early pregnancy with IVF-ET/FET and to analyze pregnancy outcomes of patients with SCH.

Methods: Patients who underwent IVF-ET/FET treatment and were diagnosed with clinical pregnancy were enrolled in our study. A total of 256 patients with SCH were enrolled in the SCH group, and 526 patients without SCH in the control group. Logistic regression was used to screen risk factors for SCH, and the nomogram was developed according to the regression coefficient of relevant variables. Discrimination, effect, calibration, and the predictive model's clinical usefulness were assessed using the C-index, the area under the receiver operating characteristic standard curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was assessed using bootstrapping validation. The effects of SCH on pregnancy outcomes were analyzed.

Results: A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that fresh embryo transfer, polycystic ovary syndrome, hydrosalpinx, and thin endometrium were risk factors affecting the occurrence of SCH. Based on the above factors, a predictive model for the risk of SCH was created. The model displayed good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.783 (95% confidence interval: 0.750-0.816), area under the receiver operating characteristic standard curve of 0.783, and good calibration. A high C-index value of 0.765 could still be reached in the interval validation. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful when the intervention was decided at the SCH possibility threshold of 4%-87%. For patients with successful deliveries, the occurrence of SCH did not influence the gestational weeks of delivery, mode of delivery, preterm birth, height, and weight of the newborn.

Conclusion: We screened the risk factors for SCH in patients who underwent IVF-ET/FET treatment. Successful establishment of a nomogram can effectively predict the occurrence of SCH. Furthermore, the incidence of miscarriage is higher in patients with SCH.