Early predictors of maturing out of marijuana use among young men.

OBJECTIVE: Although several studies have delineated risk factors for adolescent regular marijuana use, few studies have identified those factors that differentiate who will and will not eventually stop using marijuana during young adulthood. This study examined the extent to which adolescent risk factors, including individual attitudes, temperament, and behaviors and peer, family, and neighborhood factors, could prospectively identify which adolescence-onset monthly marijuana users (AMMU) would stop using marijuana in young adulthood and whether race moderated these associations.

METHOD: Data came from 503 young men who were followed annually from the first grade through mean age 20 and then re-interviewed at mean ages 26 and 29. Young men who used marijuana at least monthly at least one year between ages 14 and 17 (N=140) were compared to their peers who had not tried marijuana by age 17 (N=244). The former group was divided into those who used at least weekly in adulthood (N=54) and those who did not use at all in adulthood (N=66) and these groups were compared to each other.

RESULTS: Logistic regression analyses indicated that all except one of the adolescent risk factors significantly differentiated AMMU from nonusers. None of the predictors differentiated those who matured out from those who used weekly in young adulthood.

CONCLUSIONS: Future research on marijuana cessation should incorporate subjective life experiences, such as reasons for using and negative consequences from use, to help identify adolescents who are at risk for problematic use in adulthood.