PNPLA3 rs738409, age, diabetes, sex, and advanced fibrosis jointly contribute to the risk of major adverse liver outcomes in metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3) rs738409 variant is associated with Steatotic Liver Disease (SLD) and its progression. We examined the association between PNPLA3 and the development of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) and how non-modifiable and modifiable conditions modify this relationship.

APPROACH AND RESULTS: 2,075 adults with biopsy-confirmed Metabolic-Associated SLD (MASLD) were enrolled in the MASLD CRN studies and followed prospectively until death, transplant, or withdrawal of consent. 104 MALOs were recorded during an average of 4.3 years. PNPLA3 G-allele (Adj. SubHazard ratio (sHR): 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-1.8), advanced fibrosis (AF) (Adj. sHR: 7.8, 95% CI: 4.4-13.8), age >60 years (Adj. sHR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.3-6.8), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (Adj. sHR: 2.8, 95% CI: 1.8-4.2) were associated with MALO. Among participants with AF, those carrying the G-allele displayed the highest cumulative incidence of MALO (85%) vs. noncarriers (53%), p=0.03, and p value for interaction<0.01. The strength of the association between PNPLA3 and MALO was statistically significantly greater among older than 60 years (sHR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.5-2.8), women (sHR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.9), and those with AF (sHR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.5-2.4) or T2DM (sHR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.5-2.8) as compared with their counterparts, p value for interaction between PNPLA3 and each factor<0.01.

CONCLUSIONS: The deleterious effects of PNPLA3 rs738409 on the risk of MALO are significantly worsened by advanced fibrosis, age, T2DM, and sex.