Predictors of persistent poor control and validation of ASSESS score: Longitudinal 5-year follow-up of severe asthma cohort.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal predictors of persistent poor asthma control in severe asthma (SA) cohort remain scarce. The predictive value of the asthma severity scoring system (ASSESS) in the SA cohort outside the original study and in the Asian population is unknown.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine the 5-year longitudinal outcome of patients with SA and validate the use of ASSESS score in predicting future outcomes in SA.

METHODS: A prospective longitudinal observational study of patients with SA attending the multidisciplinary specialist SA clinic of the Singapore General Hospital from 2011 to 2021 was conducted. The number of exacerbations and asthma control test results were recorded yearly for 5 consecutive years. The ASSESS score was computed at baseline, and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for predicting persistent poor asthma control was generated.

RESULTS: Of the 489 patients recruited into the study, 306 patients with 5-year follow-up data were analyzed. Seventy-three percent had type 2 inflammation with increased overall exacerbations over 5 years (rate ratio, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.31-4.96; P  = .006) relative to non-type 2 SA. In the multivariate model, bronchiectasis, gastroesophageal reflux disease, and an asthma control test score of less than 20 were significantly associated with persistent poor asthma control over 5 years. ASSESS scores were good at predicting persistent poor asthma control with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.57-0.84).

CONCLUSIONS: Bronchiectasis and gastroesophageal reflux disease are predictors for persistent poor asthma control and targeted traits for precision medicine in SA. The ASSESS score has a good prediction for persistent poor asthma control over 5 years.