Validation of FRAX and the impact of self-reported falls among elderly in a general population: the HUNT study, Norway.

Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) without bone mineral density (BMD) for hip fracture prediction was validated in a Norwegian population 50-90 years. Fracture risk increased with higher FRAX score, and the observed number of hip fractures agreed well with the predicted number, except for the youngest and oldest men. Self-reported fall was an independent risk factor for fracture in women.

INTRODUCTION: The primary aim was to validate FRAX without BMD for hip fracture prediction in a Norwegian population of men and women 50-90 years. Secondary, to study whether information of falls could improve prediction of fractures in the subgroup aged 70-90 years.

METHODS: Data were obtained from the third survey of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT3), the fracture registry in Nord-Trøndelag, and the Norwegian Prescription Database (NorPD), including 15,432 women and 13,585 men. FRAX hip without BMD was calculated, and hip fractures were registered for a median follow-up of 5.2 years. The number of estimated and observed fractures was assessed, ROC curves with area under the curve (AUC), and Cox regression analyses. For the group aged 70-90 years, self-reported falls the last year before HUNT3 were included in the Cox regression model.

RESULTS: The risk of fracture increased with higher FRAX score. When FRAX groups were categorized in a 10-year percentage risk for hip fracture as follows, <4, 4-7.9, 8-11.9, and ≥12%, the hazard ratio (HR) for hip fracture between the lowest and the highest group was 17.80 (95% CI: 12.86-24.65) among women and 23.40 (13.93-39.30) in men. Observed number of hip fractures agreed quite well with the predicted number, except for the youngest and oldest men. AUC was 0.81 (0.78-0.83) for women and 0.79 (0.76-0.83) for men. Self-reported fall was an independent risk factor for fracture in women (HR 1.64, 1.20-2.24), and among men, this was not significant (1.09, 0.65-1.83).

CONCLUSIONS: FRAX without BMD predicted hip fracture reasonably well. In the age group 70-90 years, falls seemed to imply an additional risk among women.