Dunning-Kruger Effect Between Self-Peer Ratings of Surgical Performance During a MASCAL Event and Pre-Event Assessed Trauma Procedural Capabilities.

OBJECTIVES: The research question asked to what extent do self-rated performance scores of individual surgeons correspond to assessed procedural performance abilities and to peer ratings of procedural performance during a mass casualty (MASCAL) event?

BACKGROUND: Self-assessment using performance rating scales is ubiquitous in surgical education as a proxy for direct measurement of competence. The validity and reliability of self-ratings as competency measures are susceptible to cognitive biases such as Dunning-Kruger effects, which describe how individuals over/underestimate their own performance compared to assessments from independent sources. The ability of surgeons to accurately self-assess their procedural performance remains undetermined.

METHODS: A purposive sample of military surgeons (N = 13) who collectively cared for trauma patients during a MASCAL event participated in the study. Pre-event performance assessment scores for 32 trauma procedures were compared with post-event self and peer performance ratings using F tests ( P < 0.05) and effect sizes (Cohen's d ).

RESULTS: There were no significant differences between peer ratings and performance assessment scores. There were significant differences between self-ratings and both peer ratings ( P < 0.001) and performance assessment scores ( P < 0.001). Effect sizes were very large for self to peer rating comparison (Cohen's d = 2.34) and self to performance assessment comparison (Cohen's d = 2.77).

CONCLUSIONS: The outcomes demonstrate that self-ratings were significantly lower than the independently determined assessment scores for each surgeon, revealing a Dunning-Kruger effect for highly skilled individuals underestimating their abilities. These outcomes underscore the limitations of self-assessment for measuring competence.