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Multimodal brain age prediction using machine learning: combining structural MRI and 5-HT2AR PET-derived features.
GeroScience 2024 April 27
To better assess the pathology of neurodegenerative disorders and the efficacy of neuroprotective interventions, it is necessary to develop biomarkers that can accurately capture age-related biological changes in the human brain. Brain serotonin 2A receptors (5-HT2AR) show a particularly profound age-related decline and are also reduced in neurodegenerative disorders, such as Alzheimer's disease. This study investigates whether the decline in 5-HT2AR binding, measured in vivo using positron emission tomography (PET), can be used as a biomarker for brain aging. Specifically, we aim to (1) predict brain age using 5-HT2AR binding outcomes, (2) compare 5-HT2AR-based predictions of brain age to predictions based on gray matter (GM) volume, as determined with structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and (3) investigate whether combining 5-HT2AR and GM volume data improves prediction. We used PET and MR images from 209 healthy individuals aged between 18 and 85 years (mean = 38, std = 18) and estimated 5-HT2AR binding and GM volume for 14 cortical and subcortical regions. Different machine learning algorithms were applied to predict chronological age based on 5-HT2AR binding, GM volume, and the combined measures. The mean absolute error (MAE) and a cross-validation approach were used for evaluation and model comparison. We find that both the cerebral 5-HT2AR binding (mean MAE = 6.63 years, std = 0.74 years) and GM volume (mean MAE = 6.95 years, std = 0.83 years) predict chronological age accurately. Combining the two measures improves the prediction further (mean MAE = 5.54 years, std = 0.68). In conclusion, 5-HT2AR binding measured using PET might be useful for improving the quantification of a biomarker for brain aging.
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