Predicting Success: A Comprehensive Analysis of High School and Admission Test Scores on Future Academic Performance of Dental Students.

Introduction Dental school admissions in Pakistan traditionally rely on Higher Secondary School Certificate (HSSC), University of Health Sciences (UHS), and National Testing Service (NTS) scores, with limited research available on their predictive validity for dental school performance. This study aims to investigate the correlation between a student's first-year dental school performance and their HSSC, UHS, and NTS scores. Methods A total of 282 records, spanning the years 2016 to 2020, were obtained from a single private dental institution. The data included HSSC, UHS, and/or NTS scores, with the first professional examination results as the dependent variable. Statistical analysis was conducted using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, IBM Corp., Version 25.0, Armonk, NY), encompassing descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation coefficients, and multiple regression analysis. Results Pearson's coefficients revealed weak to moderate positive correlations between the first professional examination and HSSC (r=0.209, p<.01), UHS (r=0.344, p<.01), and NTS (r=0.350, p<.01), all statistically significant at p < 0.01. Multiple regression analysis indicated that UHS scores contributed the highest explanatory power (R² = 0.146) in predicting first professional examination results. Conclusion A positive correlation between HSSC, UHS, and NTS scores with dental students' performance in the first professional examination is observed. However, the correlations are moderate, highlighting the importance of incorporating assessments that consider cognitive, behavioral, and skill-related aspects in admissions processes. Given the evolving landscape of dental education, these findings underscore the need for a holistic approach to identify candidates better equipped to serve the healthcare sector.