Predicting post-surgical outcomes in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus using clinically important changes from the cerebrospinal fluid tap test.

OBJECTIVE: Patients diagnosed with idiopathic Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus (iNPH) typically experience symptom improvements after undergoing a cerebrospinal fluid-tap test (CSF-TT), These improvements are recognized as indicative of potential improvements following surgical intervention. As gait disturbance is the most common iNPH symptom, gait improvements are of predominant interest. The purpose of this study was to examine if clinically important changes in gait and balance from CSF-TT predict meaningful changes following surgery.

METHOD: The study involved analysis of data collected in a prospective observational study for 34 iNPH patients who underwent a CSF-TT and subsequent surgery. Linear regression, logistic regression and classification trees were used for predictive modelling comparing changes from CSF-TT with post-surgical changes in Tinetti, Timed Up and Go (TUG) and Berg Balance Scale (BBS) outcomes.

RESULTS: Predictive models for minimal clinically important differences (MCIDs) from CSF-TT to surgery were significant for Tinetti (odds ratio = 1.42, p = 0.02) and BBS (odds ratio = 1.57, p < 0.01). Four items on Tinetti and two items on BBS were identified with a predictive accuracy of 79% and 76% respectively. BBS has the highest sensitivity (85%) and negative predictive value (77%). TUG had a 100% specificity and 100% positive predictive value. The predictive model using MCIDs for TUG was not significant (odds ratio = 1.13, p = 0.06).

CONCLUSION: Clinically important changes from CSF-TT are useful in predicting post-surgical outcomes in iNPH patients. Tinetti and BBS, both have predictive value using MCID scores as cut off values, of which BBS is a stronger outcome measure for prediction.