A nomogram clinical prediction model for predicting urinary infection stones: development and validation in a retrospective study.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop a nomogram prediction model to predict the exact probability of urinary infection stones before surgery in order to better deal with the clinical problems caused by infection stones and take effective treatment measures.

METHODS: We retrospectively collected the clinical data of 390 patients who were diagnosed with urinary calculi by imaging examination and underwent postoperative stone analysis between August 2018 and August 2023. The patients were randomly divided into training group (n = 312) and validation group (n = 78) using the "caret" R package. The clinical data of the patients were evaluated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to screen out the independent influencing factors and construct a nomogram prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curves were used to evaluate the discrimination, accuracy, and clinical application efficacy of the prediction model.

RESULTS: Gender, recurrence stones, blood uric acid value, urine pH, and urine bacterial culture (P < 0.05) were independent predictors of infection stones, and a nomogram prediction model ( https://zhaoyshenjh.shinyapps.io/DynNomInfectionStone/ ) was constructed using these five parameters. The area under the ROC curve of the training group was 0.901, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.865-0.936), and the area under the ROC curve of the validation group was 0.960, 95% CI (0.921-0.998). The results of the calibration curve for the training group showed a mean absolute error of 0.015 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test P > 0.05. DCA and clinical impact curves showed that when the threshold probability value of the model was between 0.01 and 0.85, it had the maximum net clinical benefit.

CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram developed in this study has good clinical predictive value and clinical application efficiency can help with risk assessment and decision-making for infection stones in diagnosing and treating urolithiasis.