Metabolic tumor burden as a prognostic indicator after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: There is no standardized assessment for evaluating response although neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAT) is widely accepted for borderline resectable or locally advanced pancreatic cancer (BRPC or LAPC). This study was aimed to evaluate NAT response using positron emission tomography with 2-deoxy-2-[fluorine-18]fluoro-D-glucose (18F-FDG-PET/CT) parameters alongside carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 levels.

METHODS: Patients who underwent surgery after NAT for BRPC and LAPC between 2017 and 2021 were identified. The study assessed the prognostic value of PET-derived parameters after NAT, determining cutoff values using the K-adaptive partitioning method. It created four groups based on the elevation or normalization of PET parameters and CA19-9 levels, comparing survival between these groups.

RESULTS: Of 200 eligible patients, FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine-based NAT were administered in 167 and 34 patients, respectively (mean NAT cycles, 8.3). In a multivariate analysis, metabolic tumor volume (MTV) demonstrated the most robust performance in assessing response (HR 3.11, 95% CI 1.73-5.58, P<0.001) based on cut-off value of 2.4. Patients with decreased MTV had significantly better survival than those with elevated MTV among individuals with CA19-9 levels <37 IU/L (median survival; 35.5 vs. 20.9 mo, P<0.001) and CA19-9 levels ≥37 IU/L (median survival; 34.3 vs. 17.8 mo, P=0.03). In patients suspected to be Lewis antigen negative, predictive performance of MTV was found to be limited (P=0.84).

CONCLUSION: Elevated MTV is an influential prognostic factor for worse survival, regardless of post-NAT CA19-9 levels. These results could be helpful in identifying patients with a poor prognosis despite normalization of CA19-9 levels after NAT.