Nomogram for personalized prognostic assessment of children with favorable histology Wilms tumor: A retrospective analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This retrospective study aimed to construct and validate a nomogram for personalized prognostic assessment of favorable histology Wilms tumor (FHWT) based on clinical and pathological variables.

METHODS AND MATERIALS: This was a retrospective study collected data from patients who underwent surgery for FHWT between March 2007 and November 2022 at Beijing Children's Hospital. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to determine the significance variables and constructed the nomogram in predicting event-free survival (EFS) in FHWT patients.

RESULTS: A total of 401 FHWT patients were included in the study, with the median age of the patients was 3.4 years. The overall 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 98.2%, 96.3%, and 93.9%. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year EFS rates were 91.2%, 88.2%, and 86.6%. Subgroup analysis revealed age greater than 2 years was associated with a worse prognosis than age less than or equal to 2 years (P < 0.001), and patients with high-risk Wilms tumors were associated with a higher rate of recurrence and death (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age (HR: 2.449, 95%CI: 1.004-5.973), stage (HR: 1.970, 95% CI:1.408-2.756), and histological risk (HR:9.414, 95% CI: 4.318-20.525) were identified as independent predictors of EFS (P < 0.05) and used to construct the nomogram. The prognostic nomogram demonstrated good calibration, great clinical utility, and the time-dependent receiver operating curve analysis showed that the nomogram had precise predictability, with area under the curve values of 0.85(95CI:0.796-0.913), 0.85(95CI:0.80-0.91), and 0.88(95CI:0.839-0.937) for 1-,3-year and 5-year EFS.

CONCLUSION: This study provides valuable insights into the clinical characteristics and outcomes of FHWT patients. Accurate staging and histological risk assessment are important in predicting outcomes, and the prognostic nomogram we developed can be a useful tool for clinicians to assess patient prognosis and make informed treatment decisions.