Drug-target Mendelian randomization revealed a significant association of genetically proxied metformin effects with increased prostate cancer risk.

The association between metformin use and risk of prostate cancer remains controversial, while data from randomized trials is lacking. We aim to evaluate the association of genetically proxied metformin effects with prostate cancer risk using a drug-target Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. Summary statistics for prostate cancer were obtained from the Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome Consortium (79,148 cases and 61,106 controls). Cis-expression quantitative trait loci (cis-eQTL) variants in the gene targets of metformin were identified in the GTEx project and eQTLGen consortium. We also obtained male-specific genome-wide association study data for type 2 diabetes, body mass index (BMI), total testosterone, bioavailable testosterone, estradiol, and sex hormone binding globulin for mediation analysis. Inverse-variance weighted (IVW) regression, weighted median, MR-Egger regression, and MR-PRESSO were performed in the main MR analysis. Multivariable MR was used to identify potential mediators and genetic colocalization analysis was performed to assess any shared genetic basis between two traits of interest. We found that genetically proxied metformin effects (1-SD HbA1c  reduction, equivalent to 6.75 mmol/mol) were associated with higher risk of prostate cancer (odds ratioIVW [ORIVW ]: 1.55, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.23-1.96, p = 3.0 × 10-3 ). Two metformin targets, mitochondrial complex I (ORIVW : 1.48, 95% CI: 1.07-2.03, p = 0.016) and gamma-secretase complex (ORIVW : 2.58, 95%CI :1.47-4.55, p = 0.001), showed robust associations with prostate cancer risk, and their effects were partly mediated through BMI (16.4%) and total testosterone levels (34.3%), respectively. These results were further supported by colocalization analysis that expressions of NDUFA13 and BMI, APH1A, and total testosterone may be influenced by shared genetic factors, respectively. In summary, our study indicated that genetically proxied metformin effects may be associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer. Repurposing metformin for prostate cancer prevention in general populations is not supported by our findings.