Psychological predictors of vaping uptake among non-smokers: A longitudinal investigation of New Zealand adults.

INTRODUCTION: Demographic and health factors are known to predict vaping. Less is known about psychological predictors of vaping uptake, particularly among non-smoking adults using longitudinal designs. We aimed to model how psychological factors related to personality and mental health predicted the likelihood of vaping uptake over time in non-smoking adults ages 18+ using longitudinal data.

METHODS: Longitudinal regression models utilised data from the 2018-2020 waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study to assess how the Big Five personality traits, mental distress and self-control predicted who began vaping over time among non-users (non-vapers and non-smokers), controlling for gender, age, ethnicity and economic deprivation.

RESULTS: Analyses included 36,309 adults overall (ages 18 to 99; M = 51.0). The number of non-users who transitioned into current vaping was small (transitioned from 2018 to 2019, n = 147; 0.48%; 2019 to 2020, n = 189, 0.63%). Fully adjusted models showed that adults with higher mental distress (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.88), lower self-control (aOR 0.79; 95% CI 0.69-0.89) and higher extraversion (aOR 1.09; 95% CI 1.06-1.13) were more likely to begin vaping at the next time point compared to adults who remained non-users. Higher neuroticism and lower conscientiousness also predicted vaping uptake in initial models, but inclusion of mental distress and self-control superseded these traits.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Psychological factors related to mental distress, impulse control and sociability predicted who was more likely to begin vaping as non-smoking adults. Harm prevention interventions could target these factors to reduce vaping uptake in non-smokers.