Seed masting as a mechanism for escape from pathogens.

Seed masting, a reproductive strategy characterized by variable and synchronous investment in reproduction among years, has attracted much attention. Masting trees incur a cost in delayed reproduction, and thus masting requires an ecological or evolutionary explanation. The two broad causal mechanisms to explain seed masting are resource availability and economies of scale (EOS); the former assumes reproductive investment simply covaries with environment, the latter suggests an adaptive advantage. Two of the most commonly proposed EOS for masting are predator satiation and pollination efficiency. Here we suggest an additional EOS: pathogen escape. We borrow from the disease ecology literature to describe alternative models of pathogen-mediated masting. By comparing and contrasting their ecological dynamics, we show how predator satiation and pathogen escape may favour masting through similar mechanisms of mass-action interactions and temporal delays. However, pathogen- and predator-mediated dynamics may also diverge as a result of host epidemiological structure and the spatial scale of the interaction. We propose that pathogen escape should be considered among the list of putative mechanisms to help explain the many diverse observations of masting across space and phylogeny.