Child Health Needs and the Adolescent Medicine Workforce Supply: 2020-2040.

Adolescent medicine (AM) subspecialists provide primary, subspecialty, and consultative care to adolescents and young adults (AYAs). Given insufficient numbers of AM subspecialists to care for all AYAs, the workforce supports AYAs health care capacity through education, research, advocacy, and the development of policies and programs sensitive to their unique needs. A modeling project funded by the American Board of Pediatrics Foundation was developed to forecast the pediatric subspecialty workforce in the United States from 2020 to 2040 on the basis of current trends in each subspecialty. The model predicts workforce supply at baseline and across alternative scenarios, and reports results in headcount and headcount adjusted for percentage of time spent in clinical care, termed "clinical workforce equivalent." For the AM subspecialty, several scenarios were considered that modified the number of fellows and/or clinical time. The baseline model predicted low growth nationally (27% and 13% increase in total AM subspecialists and AM subspecialists per 100 000 children, respectively) and declines in AM workforce relative to population growth in census divisions with existing geographic workforce disparities. In the alternative scenarios, fellow number and clinical time changes did not significantly change predictions relative to the baseline model, but a 12.5% decrease in fellows predicted a 40% reduction in the workforce from baseline with a widening of geographic workforce disparities. On the basis of the expansive clinical and nonclinical roles of AM subspecialists and these forecasted workforce challenges, significant educational, practice, and policy changes will be necessary to bolster the supply of well-trained clinicians addressing the dynamic health care needs of AYAs.