Prediction of the risk of 3-year chronic kidney disease among elderly people: a community-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a community-based cohort study to predict the 3-year occurrence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among population aged ≥60 years.

METHOD: Participants were selected from two communities through randomized cluster sampling in Jiading District of Shanghai, China. The two communities were randomly divided into a development cohort ( n  = 12012) and a validation cohort ( n  = 6248) with a 3-year follow-up. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent predictors. A nomogram was established to predict the occurrence of CKD within 3 years. The area under the curve (AUC), the calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) curve were used to evaluate the model.

RESULT: At baseline, participants in development cohort and validation cohort were with the mean age of 68.24 ± 5.87 and 67.68 ± 5.26 years old, respectively. During 3 years, 1516 (12.6%) and 544 (8.9%) new cases developed CKD in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Nine variables (age, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, exercise, previous hypertension, triglycerides, fasting plasma glucose, glycated hemoglobin and serum creatinine) were included in the prediction model. The AUC value was 0.742 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.728-0.756] in the development cohort and 0.881(95%CI, 0.867-0.895) in the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curves and DCA curves demonstrate an effective predictive model.

CONCLUSION: Our nomogram model is a simple, reasonable and reliable tool for predicting the risk of 3-year CKD in community-dwelling elderly people, which is helpful for timely intervention and reducing the incidence of CKD.