Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Acute Kidney Injury in Sepsis Patients Based on Recursive Partition Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) is a critical condition with significant clinical implications, yet there is a need for a predictive model that can reliably assess the risk of its development. This study is undertaken to bridge a gap in healthcare by creating a predictive model for SA-AKI with the goal of empowering healthcare providers with a tool that can revolutionize patient care and ultimately lead to improved outcomes.

METHODS: A cohort of 615 patients afflicted with sepsis, who were admitted to the intensive care unit, underwent random stratification into 2 groups: a training set (n = 435) and a validation set (n = 180). Subsequently, a multivariate logistic regression model, imbued with nonzero coefficients via LASSO regression, was meticulously devised for the prognostication of SA-AKI. This model was thoughtfully rendered in the form of a nomogram. The salience of individual risk factors was assessed and ranked employing Shapley Additive Interpretation (SHAP). Recursive partition analysis was performed to stratify the risk of patients with sepsis.

RESULTS: Among the panoply of clinical variables examined, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin (PCT), activated partial thromboplastin time, and platelet count emerged as robust and independent determinants of SA-AKI. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for SA-AKI risk discrimination in both the training set and validation set yielded an area under the curve estimates of 0.843 (95% CI: 0.805 to 0.882) and 0.834 (95% CI: 0.775 to 0.893), respectively. Notably, PCT exhibited the most conspicuous influence on the model's predictive capacity. Furthermore, statistically significant disparities were observed in the incidence of SA-AKI and the 28-day survival rate across high-risk, medium-risk, and low-risk cohorts ( P  < .05).

CONCLUSION: The composite predictive model, amalgamating the quintet of SA-AKI predictors, holds significant promise in facilitating the identification of high-risk patient subsets.