Radiomics could predict surgery at 10 years in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Predicting clinical outcomes represents a major challenge in Crohn's disease (CD). Radiomics provides a method to extract quantitative features from medical images and may successfully predict clinical course.

AIMS: The aim of this pilot study is to evaluate the use of radiomics to predict 10-year surgery for CD patients.

METHODS: We selected a cohort of CD patients with CT scan enterographies and a 10-year follow up. The R library Moddicom was used to extract radiomic features from each lesion of CD, segmented in the CT scans. A logistic regression model based on selected radiomic features was developed to predict 10-year surgery. The model was evaluated by computing the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV).

RESULTS: We enroled 30 patients, with 44 CT scans and 93 lesions. We extracted 217 radiomic features from each lesion. The developed model was based on two radiomic features and presented an AUC (95% CI) of 0.83 (0.73-0.91) in predicting 10-year surgery. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV of the radiomic model were equal to 0.72, 0.90, 0.79, 0.86, respectively.

CONCLUSION: Radiomics could be a helpful tool to identify patients with high risk for surgery and needing a stricter monitoring.