Prediction of major adverse kidney events in critically ill burn patients.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed at assessing the predictive value of plasmatic Neutrophil Gelatinase Associated Lipocalin (pNGAL) at admission and severity scores to predict major adverse kidney events (MAKE, defined as death and/or need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) and/or non-renal recovery at day 90) in critically ill burn patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Single-center cohort study in a burn critical care unit in a tertiary center, including all consecutive severely burn patients (total burned body surface >20%) from January 2012 until January 2015 with a pNGAL dosage at admission. Reclassification of patients was assessed by Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI).

MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: 87 patients were included. Mean age was 47.7 (IQ 25-75: 33.4-65.2) years; total burn body surface area was 40 (IQ 25-75: 30-55) % and ICU mortality 36%. 39 (44.8%) patients presented a MAKE, 32 (88.9%) patients died at day 90. pNGAL was higher in the MAKE group (423 [IQ 25-75: 327-518]pg/mL vs 184 [IQ 25-75: 147-220]pg/mL, p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, pNGAL and abbreviated burn severity index (ABSI) remained associated with MAKE (OR 1.005 [CI 95% 1.0005-1.009], p=0.03 and OR 1.682 [CI95%1.038-2.726], p=0.035 respectively). Adding pNGAL to abbreviated burn severity index, simplified organ failure assessment and the simplified acute physiology score 2 did outperform clinical scores for the prediction of MAKE and AKI and for most severe forms of AKI and allowed a statistically significant reclassification of patients compared to ABSI for MAKE, RRT, AKI at Day 7 and AKI during hospitalization with a number of patients needed to screen to detect one extra episode of MAKE was 44, 13 for severe AKI and 15 for AKI.

CONCLUSIONS: pNGAL at admission is associated with the risk of MAKE in this population, and outperform severity scores when associated. Interventional studies are now needed to assess if impact of biomarkers-guided strategies would improve outcome.