Targeted metabolomics combined with machine learning to identify and validate new biomarkers for early SLE diagnosis and disease activity.

BACKGROUND: The early diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and the assessment of disease activity progression remain a great challenge. Targeted metabolomics has great potential to identify new biomarkers of SLE.

METHODS: Serum from 44 healthy participants and 89 SLE patients were analyzed using HM400 high-throughput targeted metabolomics. Machine learning (ML) with seven learning models and trained the model several times iteratively selected the two best prediction model in a competitive way, which were independent validated by enzyme-linked immunosorbent (ELISA) with 90 SLE patients.

RESULTS: In this study, 146 differential metabolites, most of them organic acids, amino acids, and bile acids, were detected between patients with initial SLE and healthy participants, and 8 potential biomarkers were found by intersection of ML and statistics (area under the curve [AUC] > 0.95) showing a significant positive correlation with clinical indicators. In addition, we identified and validated 2 potential biomarkers for SLE classification (P < 0.05, AUC > 0.775; N-Methyl-L-glutamic acid, L-2-aminobutyric acid) showing a significant correlation with the SLE Disease Activity Index. These differential metabolites were mainly involved in metabolic pathways, amino acid biosynthesis, 2-oxocarboxylic acid metabolism and other pathways.

CONCLUSION: This study indicated that the tricarboxylic acid cycle might be associated with SLE drug therapy. We identified 8 diagnostic models biomarkers and 2 biomarkers that could be used to identify initial SLE and distinguish different activity degree, which will promote the development of new tools for the diagnosis and evaluation of SLE.