Development and validation of a multicenter Cox regression model to predict all-cause mortality in patients with renal masses suspicious for renal cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Life expectancy models are useful tools to support clinical decision-making. Prior models have not been used widely in clinical practice for patients with renal masses. We sought to develop and validate a model to predict life expectancy following the detection of a localized renal mass suspicious for renal cell carcinoma.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using retrospective data from 2 large centers, we identified patients diagnosed with clinically localized renal parenchymal masses from 1998 to 2018. After 2:1 random sampling into a derivation and validation cohort stratified by site, we used age, sex, log-transformed tumor size, simplified cardiovascular index and planned treatment to fit a Cox regression model to predict all-cause mortality from the time of diagnosis. The model's discrimination was evaluated using a C-statistic, and calibration was evaluated visually at 1, 5, and 10 years.

RESULTS: We identified 2,667 patients (1,386 at Corewell Health and 1,281 at Johns Hopkins) with renal masses. Of these, 420 (16%) died with a median follow-up of 5.2 years (interquartile range 2.2-8.3). Statistically significant predictors in the multivariable Cox regression model were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.05); male sex (HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.08-1.81); log-transformed tumor size (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.30-2.24); cardiovascular index (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.32-1.67), and planned treatment (HR: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.06-0.18 for kidney-sparing intervention and HR: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.11-0.35 for radical nephrectomy vs. no intervention). The model achieved a C-statistic of 0.74 in the derivation cohort and 0.73 in the validation cohort. The model was well-calibrated at 1, 5, and 10 years of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS: For patients with localized renal masses, accurate determination of life expectancy is essential for decision-making regarding intervention vs. active surveillance as a primary treatment modality. We have made available a simple tool for this purpose.