Characterising the changes in RSV epidemiology in Beijing, China during 2015-2023: results from a prospective, multi-centre, hospital-based surveillance and serology study.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has posed substantial morbidity and mortality burden to young children and older adults globally. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was reported to have altered RSV epidemiology and could have important implications for RSV prevention and control strategies. We aimed to compare RSV epidemiology in different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic with the pre-pandemic period by leveraging epidemiological, molecular, and serological data collected from a prospective respiratory pathogen surveillance and serology study.

METHODS: This study was based on the data during July 1, 2015 to November 30, 2023 from the Respiratory Pathogen Surveillance System (RPSS), a sentinel-hospital based surveillance system of acute respiratory infections consisting of 35 hospitals that represent residents of all ages from all 16 districts in Beijing, China. RSV infection status was tested by RT-PCR and gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis was conducted among the identified RSV strains. We further supplemented RPSS data with three serology surveys conducted during 2017-2023 that tested RSV IgG levels from serum specimens. RSV detection rate was calculated by calendar month and compared across RSV seasons (defined as the July 1 through June 30 of the following year). RSV IgG positivity proportion was calculated by quarter of the year and was correlated with quarterly aggregated RSV detection rate for understanding the relationship between infection and immunity at the population level.

FINDINGS: Overall, a total of 52,931 respiratory specimens were collected and tested over the study period. RSV detection rates ranged from 1.24% (94/7594) in the 2017-2018 season to 2.80% (219/7824) in the 2018-2019 season, and from 1.06% (55/5165) in the 2022-2023 season to 2.98% (147/4938) in the 2021-2022 season during the pre-pandemic and pandemic period, respectively. ON1 and BA9 remained the predominant genotypes during the pandemic period; no novel RSV strains were identified. RSV circulation followed a winter-months seasonal pattern in most seasons. One exception was the 2020-2021 season when an extensive year-round circulation was observed, possibly associated with partial relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The other exception was the 2022-2023 season when very low RSV activity was observed during the usual winter months (possibly due to the concurrent local COVID-19 epidemic), and followed by an out-of-season resurgence in the spring, with RSV detection persisting to the end of the study period (November 2023). During the two seasons above, we noted an age-group related asynchrony in the RSV detection rate; the RSV detection rate in young children remained similar (or even increased with borderline significance; 43/594, 7.24%, and 42/556, 7.55% vs 292/5293, 5.52%; P  = 0.10 and P  = 0.06, respectively) compared with the pre-pandemic seasons whereas the detection rate in older adults decreased significantly (8/1779, 0.45%, and 3/2021, 0.15% vs 160/10,348, 1.55%; P  < 0.001 in two comparisons). Results from serology surveys showed significantly declined RSV IgG positivity in the 2022-2023 season compared to the pre-pandemic seasons (9.32%, 29/311 vs 20.16%, 100/496; P  < 0.001); older adults had significantly higher RSV IgG positivity than young children in both pre-pandemic and pandemic periods ( P values < 0.001).

INTERPRETATION: Our study documented the trajectory of RSV detection along with the changes in the stringency of NPIs, measured IgG positivity, and local COVID-19 epidemics. The findings suggest the interplay between contact patterns, immunity dynamics, and SARS-CoV-2 infection in shaping the RSV epidemics of population of different ages. These findings provide novel insights into the potential drivers of RSV circulating patterns and have important implications for RSV prevention and control strategies.

FUNDING: The High-qualified Public Health Professionals Development Project, Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research, and the Public Health Personnel Training Support Program.