Risk Factors and Risk Assessment for Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the pertinent risk factors associated with post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis (PEP) and develop a predictive scoring system for assessing the risk of PEP in patients undergoing endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) procedures.

STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive study. Place and Duration of the Study: Department of Gastroenterology, Nantong First People's Hospital, Jiangsu, China, from January 2022 to January 2023.

METHODOLOGY: Clinical data of 375 patients who underwent successful ERCP treatment were collected and organised. Relevant risk factors for PEP were analysed, and a scoring system was established to predict the risk of PEP.

RESULTS: Among the 375 patients who underwent ERCP, the incidence of PEP was 9.07% (34/375). Univariate analysis revealed that female gender, pancreatic duct opacification, difficult cannulation, operation time ≥45 minutes, sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD), and biliary stenting were risk factors for PEP. Multivariate analysis showed that female gender, pancreatic duct opacification, difficult cannulation, operation time ≥45 minutes, and SOD were independent risk factors for PEP. A scoring system was developed, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis determined a cut-off value of 1.5 points. Patients with a score less than 1.5 points had a low probability of developing PEP, while those with a score greater than 1.5 points had a significantly higher probability of PEP.

CONCLUSION: Female gender, pancreatic duct opacification, difficult cannulation, operation time ≥45 minutes, and SOD were independent risk factors for PEP. Additionally, a reliable scoring system was established to predict the risk of PEP. Clinicians can use this scoring system to assess the risk of PEP in patients and implement preventive measures to reduce the incidence of PEP.

KEY WORDS: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, Post-ERCP pancreatitis, Risk factors, Risk assessment, Preventive measure.