Identifying factors predicting outcomes after major trauma in older patients: Prognostic systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Trauma is the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in older people and it is important to determine the predictors of outcomes after major trauma in older people.

METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and manual search of relevant papers since 1987 to February 2023 was searched. Random effects meta-analyses were performed. The primary outcome of interest was mortality and secondary outcomes were medical complications, length of stay, discharge destination, readmission, and intensive care requirement.

RESULTS: Amongst 6064 studies in the search strategy, 136 studies qualified inclusion criteria. 43 factors, ranging from demographics, patient-factors, admission measurements and injury factors, were identified as potential predictors. Mortality was the commonest outcome investigated and increasing age was associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 1.05, 95%CI1.03-1.07) along with male gender (OR1.40, 95%CI1.24-1.59). Comorbidities of heart disease (OR 2.59, 95%CI1.41-4.77), renal disease (OR2.52, 95%CI1.79-3.56), respiratory disease (OR1.40. 95%CI 1.09-1.81), diabetes (OR1.35, 95%CI1.03-1.77) and neurological disease (OR 1.42, 95%CI 0.93-2.18) were also associated with increased in-hospital mortality risk. Each point increase in the Glasgow Coma Scale lowered the risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 0.85, 95%CI 0.76-0.95) while each point increase in Injury Severity Score increased the risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 1.07, 95%CI1.04-1.09). There were limited studies and substantial variability in secondary outcome predictors, however, medical comorbidities, frailty, premorbid living condition appeared predictive for those outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS: This review was able to identify potential predictors for older trauma patients. The identification of these factors allows for future development of risk stratification tools for clinicians.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, Prognostic Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.