Evaluation of survival of the patients with metastatic rectal cancer by staging 18F-FDG PET/CT radiomic and volumetric parameters.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to predict the prognosis in patients with metastatic rectal cancer (mRC) by obtaining a model with machine learning (ML) algorithms through volumetric and radiomic data obtained from baseline 18-Fluorine Fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) images.

METHODS: Sixty-two patients with mRC who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging for staging between January 2015 and January 2021 were evaluated using LIFEx software. The volume of interest (VOI) of the primary tumor was generated and volumetric and textural features were obtained from this VOI. In addition, metabolic tumor volume (tMTV) and total lesion glycolysis (tTLG) values of tumor foci in the whole body. Clinical and radiomic data were evaluated with ML algorithms to create a model that predicts survival. Significant associations between these features and 1-year and 2-year survival were investigated.

RESULTS: Random forest algorithm was the most successful algorithm in predicting 2-year survival (AUC: 0.843, PRC: 0.822, and MCC: 0.583). The model obtained with this algorithm was able to predict 49 patients with 79.03% accuracy. While tMTV and tTLG values were successful in predicting 1-year survival (p: 0.002 and 0.007, respectively), texture characteristics from the primary tumor did not show a significant relationship with 1-year survival.

CONCLUSIONS: In addition to the important role of 18 F-FDG PET/CT in staging patients with mRC, this study shows that it is possible to predict survival with ML methods, with parameters obtained using texture analysis from the primary tumor and whole body volumetric parameters.