Confronting genetic gains with markets: Retrospective lessons from New Rice for Africa (NERICA) in Uganda.

Breeders have two non-exclusive strategic investment options for increasing smallholder farmers' and consumers' livelihoods through genetic improvement of crop varieties: (i) enhancing productivity; and (ii) enhancing value and market access. New Rice for Africa (NERICA) varieties with superior agronomic characteristics were bred and introduced in various African countries in the early 2000s. Two decades later, drought tolerant NERICA4 is among the popular upland rice varieties grown across Africa. We analyze market evidence for NERICA4 from Uganda in 2011, i.e. well before it massively reached urban markets, where it is currently commingled with standard rice. We then compare the breeding priorities that would have ensued from the 2011 market evidence with the reality a decade later. Non-hypothetical auction experiments with consumers were conducted in urban Uganda in 2011 to predict potential market share and value of non-fragrant NERICA4 and fragrant NERICA1, relative to two market standards, i.e. non-fragrant Kaiso , and Supa , the most popular fragrant rice variety in the region. Average consumer bids positioned the two NERICAs between both market standards. Whereas NERICA1 easily outcompeted NERICA4 and Kaiso in the non-fragrant rice category, it failed to compete with Supa in the fragrant category. The 2011 market evidence would have suggested breeders prioritize investment in breeding programs for fragrant NERICAs to help smallholders gain access to high-value markets and expand consumers' choice with cheaper fragrant rice alternatives. However, the popularity of NERICA4 relative to NERICA1 in farmers' fields seems to suggest that agronomic genetic gains may have outweighed market traits such as fragrance.