Medial compartment defects progress at a more rapid rate than lateral cartilage defects in older adults with minimal to moderate knee osteoarthritis (OA): data from the OA initiative.

PURPOSE: To determine: (1) rates and risk factors for progression of lateral and medial full-thickness cartilage defect size in older adults without severe knee osteoarthritis (OA), and (2) whether risk factors for defect progression differ for knees with Kellgren-Lawrence OA grade 3 (moderate) OA versus grades 0-2 (none to mild) OA.

METHODS: Three-hundred and eighty adults enrolled in the Osteoarthritis Initiative were included (43% male, mean age 63.0 SD 9.2 years). Ethical approval was obtained at all study sites prior to enrollment. All participants had full-thickness tibial or weight-bearing femoral condylar cartilage defects on baseline knee MRIs. Baseline OA grade was KL grade 3 in 71.3% and grades 0-2 in 21.7% of participants. Repeat MRIs were obtained at a minimum 2-year follow-up. Independent risk of progression in defect size due to demographic factors, knee alignment, OA grade, knee injury and surgery history, and baseline knee symptoms was determined by multivariate Cox proportional hazards and linear regression modeling.

RESULTS: The average increase in defect size over 2 years for lateral defects was 0.18 cm2 (SD 0.60) and for medial defects was 0.49 cm2 (SD 1.09). Independent predictors of medical defect size progression were bipolar defects (beta 0.47 SE 0.08; p < 0.001), knee varus (per degree, beta 0.08 SE 0.03; p = 0.02) and increased weight (per kg, beta = 0.01 SE 0.004; p = 0.01). Independent predictors for lateral defect progression were larger baseline defect size (per 1.0 cm2 , beta 0.14 SE 0.03; p < 0.001) and tibial sided defects (beta 0.12 SE 0.04) and degrees valgus (per degree, beta 0.04 SE 0.01; p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: Medial compartment full-thickness defects progress at a more rapid rate than lateral defects in older adults with minimal to moderate OA. Medial defect progression was greatest for bipolar defects in heavier adults with varus knees. Lateral defect progression was greatest for large tibial-sided defects in adults with valgus knees.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II.