The application of different machine learning models based on PET/CT images and EGFR in predicting brain metastasis of adenocarcinoma of the lung.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the value of six machine learning models based on PET/CT radiomics combined with EGFR in predicting brain metastases of lung adenocarcinoma.

METHODS: Retrospectively collected 204 patients with lung adenocarcinoma who underwent PET/CT examination and EGFR gene detection before treatment from Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University in 2020. Using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis to find the independent risk factors for brain metastasis. Based on PET/CT imaging combined with EGFR and PET metabolic indexes, established six machine learning models to predict brain metastases of lung adenocarcinoma. Finally, using ten-fold cross-validation to evaluate the predictive effectiveness.

RESULTS: In univariate analysis, patients with N2-3, EGFR mutation-positive, LYM%≤20, and elevated tumor markers(P<0.05) were more likely to develop brain metastases. In multivariate Logistic regression analysis, PET metabolic indices revealed that SUVmax, SUVpeak, Volume, and TLG were risk factors for lung adenocarcinoma brain metastasis(P<0.05). The SVM model was the most efficient predictor of brain metastasis with an AUC of 0.82 (PET/CT group),0.70 (CT group),0.76 (PET group).

CONCLUSIONS: Radiomics combined with EGFR machine learning model as a new method have higher accuracy than EGFR mutation alone. SVM model is the most effective method for predicting brain metastases of lung adenocarcinoma, and the prediction efficiency of PET/CT group is better than PET group and CT group.