EXPRESS: Temporal trends in stroke incidence and case-fatality rates in Arcadia, Greece: a sequential, prospective, population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke incidence and case-fatality are reported to decline in high-income countries during the last decades. Epidemiological studies are important for health services to organize prevention and treatment strategies.

AIMS: The aim of this population-based study was to determine temporal trends of stroke incidence and case-fatality rates of first-ever stroke in Arcadia, a prefecture in southern Greece.

METHODS: All first-ever stroke cases in the Arcadia prefecture were ascertained using the same standard criteria and multiple overlapping sources in three study periods: from November 1993 to October 1995; 2004; and 2015-2016. Crude and age-adjusted to European population incidence rates were compared using Poisson regression. Twenty-eight days case fatality rates were estimated and compared using the same method.

RESULTS: In total, 1,315 patients with first-ever stroke were identified. The age-standardized incidence to the European population was 252 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI 231 to 239) in 1993/1995, 252 (95%CI 223 to 286) in 2004, and 211 (192 to 232) in 2015/2016. The overall age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates fell by 16% (incidence rates ratio 0.84, 95%CI:0.72 to 0.97). Similarly, 28-day case-fatality rate decreased by 28% (case fatality rate ratio=0.72, 95%CI:0.58 to 0.90).

CONCLUSIONS: This population-based study reports a significant decline in stroke incidence and mortality rates in southern Greece between 1993 and 2016.