Prognostic models for predicting insomnia treatment outcomes: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and critically evaluate models predicting insomnia treatment response in adult populations.

METHODS: Pubmed, EMBASE, and PsychInfo databases were searched from January 2000 to January 2023 to identify studies reporting the development or validation of multivariable models predicting insomnia treatment outcomes in adults. Data were extracted according to CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) guidelines and study quality was assessed using the Prediction model study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS: Eleven studies describing 53 prediction models were included and appraised. Treatment response was most frequently assessed using wake after sleep onset (n = 10; 18.9%), insomnia severity index (n = 10; 18.9%), and sleep onset latency (n = 9, 17%). Dysfunctional Beliefs About Sleep (DBAS) score was the most common predictor in final models (n = 33). R2 values ranged from 0.06 to 0.80 for models predicting continuous response and area under the curve (AUC) ranged from 0.73 to 0.87 for classification models. Only two models were internally validated, and none were externally validated. All models were rated as having a high risk of bias according to PROBAST, which was largely driven by the analysis domain.

CONCLUSION: Prediction models may be a useful tool to assist clinicians in selecting the optimal treatment strategy for patients with insomnia. However, no externally validated models currently exist. These results highlight an important gap in the literature and underscore the need for the development and validation of modern, methodologically rigorous models.