Factors associated with a high-risk return visit to the emergency department: a case-crossover study.

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Although factors related to a return emergency department (ED) visit have been reported, few studies have examined 'high-risk' return ED visits with serious adverse outcomes. Understanding factors associated with high-risk return ED visits may help with early recognition and prevention of these catastrophic events.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to (1) estimate the incidence of high-risk return ED visits, and (2) to investigate time-varying factors associated with these revisits.

DESIGN: Case-crossover study.

SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: We used electronic clinical warehouse data from a tertiary medical center. We retrieved data from 651 815 ED visits over a 6-year period. Patient demographics and computerized triage information were extracted.

OUTCOME MEASURE AND ANALYSIS: A high-risk return ED visit was defined as a revisit within 72 h of the index visit with ICU admission, receiving emergency surgery, or with in-hospital cardiac arrest during the return ED visit. Time-varying factors associated with a return visit were identified.

MAIN RESULTS: There were 440 281 adult index visits, of which 19 675 (4.5%) return visits occurred within 72 h. Of them, 417 (0.1%) were high-risk revisits. Multivariable analysis showed that time-varying factors associated with an increased risk of high-risk revisits included the following: arrival by ambulance, dyspnea, or chest pain on ED presentation, triage level 1 or 2, acute change in levels of consciousness, tachycardia (>90/min), and high fever (>39°C).

CONCLUSIONS: We found a relatively small fraction of discharges (0.1%) developed serious adverse events during the return ED visits. We identified symptom-based and vital sign-based warning signs that may be used for patient self-monitoring at home, as well as new-onset signs during the return visit to alert healthcare providers for timely management of these high-risk revisits.