The Population-level Prevalence of Exocrine Pancreas Insufficiency and the Subsequent Risk of Pancreatic Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To study the prevalence of exocrine pancreas insufficiency (EPI) at a population level and the subsequent risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

METHODS: Using TriNetX (a database of over 79 million US residents), we included patients ≥18 years with EPI (identified via ICD-10 codes) and continuous follow-up from 2016-2022. Patients with prior pancreas resection and PDAC before an EPI diagnosis were excluded. The primary outcome was EPI prevalence. Secondary outcomes included imaging utilization, PDAC risk and, pancreas enzyme replacement therapy (PERT) utilization. We performed 1:1 propensity score matching of patients with EPI vs. patients without an EPI diagnosis. Adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals were reported.

RESULTS: The population prevalence of EPI was 0.8% (n = 24,080) with a mean age of 55.6 years at diagnosis. After propensity score matching, PDAC risk among patients with EPI was twice as high compared to patients without EPI (AHR 1.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.66-2.36). This risk persisted even after excluding patients with a history of acute or chronic pancreatitis (aOR: 4.25, 95% CI 2.99-6.04). Only 58% (n = 13, 390) of patients with EPI received PERT with a mean treatment duration of 921 days. No difference was observed in PDAC risk between patients with EPI treated with PERT vs. those that did not receive PERT (AHR 1.10, 95% CI 0.95-1.26, p = 0.17).

CONCLUSIONS: Despite a low prevalence, patients with EPI may have a higher risk of PDAC and many of these patients with EPI were not on PERT. PERT did not appear to impact incident PDAC risk after an EPI diagnosis.