The importance of migratory drop-off for island colonization in birds.

Seasonal migration is an underappreciated driver of animal diversification. Changes in migratory behaviour may favour the establishment of sedentary founder populations and promote speciation if there is sufficient reproductive isolation between sedentary and migratory populations. From a systematic literature review, we here quantify the role of migratory drop-off-the loss of migratory behaviour-in promoting speciation in birds on islands. We identify at least 157 independent colonization events likely initiated by migratory species that led to speciation, including 44 cases among recently extinct species. By comparing, for all islands, the proportion of island endemic species that derived from migratory drop-off with the proportion of migratory species among potential colonizers, we showed that seasonal migration has a larger effect on island endemic richness than direct dispersal. We also found that the role of migration in island colonization increases with the geographic isolation of islands. Furthermore, the success of speciation events depends in part on species biogeographic and ecological factors, here positively associated with greater range size and larger flock sizes. These results highlight the importance of shifts in migratory behaviour in the speciation process and calls for greater consideration of migratory drop-off in the biogeographic distribution of birds.