Do hypothetical evaluations of alcohol related consequences change over time? Examining the influence of past and ongoing consequences.

OBJECTIVE: Despite experiencing alcohol-related consequences, college students continue to drink at high rates. Hypothetical evaluations of alcohol-related consequences (i.e., evaluations of where potential/hypothetical consequences lie on a spectrum from extremely positive to extremely negative) may contribute to the maintenance of drinking patterns among students. The purpose of the present study was to describe hypothetical evaluations in a sample of students mandated to an alcohol intervention, examine changes over time, and investigate the influence of both baseline and time-varying experienced consequences.

METHOD: This study was a secondary data analysis from a longitudinal randomized controlled trial. Participants were 474 mandated students (Mage  = 18.65; 55.5 % male, 77.6 % White). Students completed an initial baseline assessment of demographics, alcohol use, consequences, and hypothetical evaluations, and 3-month and 9-month follow-up assessments that included hypothetical evaluations and experienced consequences.

RESULTS: Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) analyses revealed significant change in hypothetical evaluations over time such that they became less negative. A piecewise model demonstrated that this change happened between baseline and 3-month, with no additional change between 3-month and 9-month. The experience of consequences at baseline did not significantly moderate changes in either time interval. Time-varying consequences also had no significant effect on same-timepoint hypothetical evaluations.

CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to examine changes in hypothetical evaluations over time among mandated college students. Counter to expectations, hypothetical evaluations became less negative at 3-month follow-up. Though preliminary, findings add to the understanding of hypothetical evaluations of alcohol-related consequences.