The demand for male contraception: Estimating the potential market for users of novel male contraceptive methods using United States National Survey of Family Growth data.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potential market for novel male contraceptives (NMCs) using United States National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) data, 2015-2017.

STUDY DESIGN: We described the market for NMCs via secondary analysis of the 2015-2017 NSFG's weighted male respondent data, utilizing surrogate markers for contraceptive switching (NSFG) and contraceptive discontinuation data from the Contraceptive CHOICE project. Potential NMC users included men relying on: (1) no methods or less effective methods but who reported that they would be "very upset" if they got someone pregnant, (2) permanent methods but who reported that they might still want more children, (3) a female partner's method that she might discontinue in the next year, (4) a male method even when his partner uses her own contraceptive.

RESULTS: Of 3340 respondents-representing 55,890,830 sexually active, reproductive-age men-23.2% used no contraception at last intercourse, 15.8% condoms, 5.1% withdrawal, and 5.1% vasectomy. Among respondents relying solely on condoms, withdrawal, or no method, 19.7%, 3.8%, and 4.4% would be "very upset" if they got someone pregnant. For permanent contraceptive users, 17.3%-20.5% wanted another child. For men reliant on their partner's long-acting reversible or combined hormonal contraceptive, 12-17% and 45-51% of partners might discontinue their method. These data conservatively suggest that 13% or more than 7 million men would potentially use NMCs, rising to 15.5 million with less restrictive contraceptive switching criteria.

CONCLUSION: Adjusting for pregnancy attitudes and likelihood of contraceptive switching, a substantial portion (between 7-15.5 million) of reproductive age men in the US are potential NMC users.

IMPLICATIONS: The population of potential novel male contraceptive users extends beyond just users of condoms, withdrawal and vasectomy and should include couples practicing dual-partner contraception and female partners using contraceptive methods that they may become dissatisfied with and discontinue.