Effects of primary health care and socioeconomic aspects on the dispersion of COVID-19 in the Brazilian Northeast: Ecological study of the first pandemic wave.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on socioeconomic and public health conditions of the population.

AIM: To measure the temporal evolution of COVID-19 cases in cities near the countryside outside metropolitan areas of northeastern Brazil and the impact of the primary care organization in its containment.

METHODS: This is a time-series study, based on the first three months of COVID-19 incidence in northeastern Brazil. Secondary data were used, the outcome was number of COVID-19 cases. Independent variables were time, coverage and quality score of basic health services, and demographic, socioeconomic and social isolation variables. Generalizable Linear Models with first order autoregression were applied.

RESULTS: COVID-19 spreads heterogeneously in cities near the countryside of Northeastern Brazilian cities, showing associations with the city size, socioeconomic and organizational indicators of services. The Family Health Strategy seems to mitigate the speed of progression and burden of the disease, in addition to measures such as social isolation and closure of commercial activities.

CONCLUSION: The spread of COVID-19 reveals multiple related factors, which require coordinated intersectoral actions in order to mitigate its problems, especially in biologically and socially vulnerable populations.