Responses of phenology to preseason drought and soil temperature for different land cover types on the Mongolian Plateau.

Drought and heat caused major disturbance in nature by interfering with plant phenology, and can also alter the vulnerability and resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. Existing research on the Mongolian Plateau has primarily focused on studying the response of the start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season to drought and heat variations. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding the coupled effects of drought and heat on phenology across different land cover types. In this study, we retrieved SOS and EOS based on 34-year (1982-2015) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS). Results showed that grasslands and the Gobi Desert show rapid advancement in SOS, and forests presented the slowest advancement in SOS, but SOS in croplands were delayed. EOS across four land cover types advanced, with the Gobi Desert showed the highest rate of advancement and forests the lowest. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and soil temperature as the indicators of drought and thermal conditions, the responses of SOS and EOS to these two climate variables were evaluated. The advanced SOS driven by lower drought severity was detected in forests, grasslands, croplands and the Gobi Desert. The dominant response of EOS to drought severity was positive in croplands, grasslands and forests, except for the Gobi Desert, where drought severity had negative effects on EOS. Compared with the daily average soil temperature (STmean ), the daily maximum soil temperature (STmax , daytime), and the daily minimum soil temperature (STmin , nighttime), the daily diurnal soil temperature range (DSTR, where DSTR = STmax  - STmin ) between night and day were the most suitable indicators for assessing the response of SOS and EOS to soil temperature. Strong negative correlation between SOS and the preseason DSTR was pronounced in all land cover types on the Mongolian Plateau. However, EOS was negatively correlated with the preseason DSTR only in the Gobi Desert. Last but not least, normalized sensitivity assessments reveal that the negative impacts of DSTR on SOS and EOS were the main controlling factors on the Mongolian Plateau phenology, followed by the couple negative effects of drought severity and DSTR.