Response of alpine ground temperatures to a rising atmospheric 0 °C isotherm in the period 1955-2021.

Ground temperatures in alpine terrain vary considerably over short distances, particularly due to differences in elevation and incoming short-wave radiation but also snow and surface conditions. To allow for direct cross-site, interregional, and cross-disciplinary comparisons, we introduce a parameter called the potential 0 °C isotherm (PZDI) in the ground. This parameter represents an aspect- and elevation independent geo-projection of ground temperatures. It was calculated for several ground temperature datasets from the (sub-)permafrost zone in the European Alps. We analyse the reaction of the PZDI at different depths to long-term changes in atmospheric temperature, represented by the atmospheric 0 °C isotherm (AZDI). The close correspondence of PZDI and AZDI mainly provided two new insights: Based on 15 boreholes, the PZDI/AZDI interaction allowed a depth-dependent analysis of the magnitude and temporal evolution of the disequilibrium between atmosphere and ground and the potential heat transfer processes involved. Moreover, it allowed a reconstruction of the development of ground temperatures in the European Alps during the second half of the 20th century, adding 50 years to the longest existing time series measured in ice-poor permafrost. This extension into the past reveals a major warming at the end of the 1980s, which occurred before the start of the available permafrost temperature observations. In the 1955-2021 period, the 5-year running mean of the AZDI rose by 400 m, while the PZDI at 15 m depth rose by about 300 m. Projecting this warming into a permafrost distribution map shows a decline in shallow, ice-poor permafrost area by roughly 60 % since the 1980s. We expect the PZDI to follow the AZDI and to increase by another 100 m in the coming decade and up to at least 14 m depth. This would increase the area with loss of shallow permafrost to approximately 80 % since the 1980s.