Mortality Risks Over 20 Years in Men With Stage I to III Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer.

IMPORTANCE: In women with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer, the risk of distant recurrence and death persists for at least 20 years from diagnosis. The risk of late mortality in men with HR+ breast cancer has not been reported.

OBJECTIVE: To report 20-year risks of breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM) and non-BCSM in men with stage I to III HR+ breast cancer and identify factors associated with late BCSM.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: An observational cohort study was conducted of men diagnosed with HR+ breast cancer from 1990 to 2008, using population-based data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Men diagnosed with stage I to III HR+ breast cancer were included in the analysis. Cumulative incidence function was used to estimate the outcomes of baseline clinicopathologic variables regarding cumulative risk of BCSM and non-BCSM since diagnosis. Smoothed hazard estimates over time were plotted for BCSM. Fine and Gray multivariable regression evaluated the association of preselected variables with BCSM, conditional on having survived 5 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: BCSM.

RESULTS: A total of 2836 men with stage I to III HR+ breast cancer were included, with a median follow-up of 15.41 (IQR, 12.08-18.67) years. Median age at diagnosis was 67 (IQR, 57-76) years. The cumulative 20-year risk of BCSM was 12.4% for stage I, 26.2% for stage II, and 46.0% for stage III. Smoothed annual hazard estimates for BCSM revealed an increase in late hazard rates with each incremental node category, reaching a bimodal distribution in N3 and stage III, with each having peaks in hazard rates at 4 and 11 years. Among patients who survived 5 years from diagnosis, the adjusted BCSM risk was higher for those younger than 50 years vs older than 64 years, those with grade II or III/IV vs grade I tumors, and stage II or III vs stage I disease.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings of this study suggest that, in men with stage I to III HR+ breast cancer, the risk of BCSM persists for at least 20 years and depends on traditional clinicopathologic factors, such as age, tumor stage, and tumor grade. Among men with higher stages of disease, the kinetics of the BCSM risk appear different from the risk that has been reported in women.