Trend analysis of malaria surveillance data in West Wallaga, West Oromia, Ethiopia: a framework for planning and elimination.

BACKGROUND: Although Ethiopia has made a remarkable progress towards malaria prevention and control, malaria remains one of the most devastating parasitic diseases affecting humans. However, the distribution and transmission of malaria varies across the country. The study aimed to describe 5 years of malaria distribution and magnitude within the West Wallaga Zone and its respective woredas.

METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional study design was conducted from April 10, 2019 to May 2019. Surveillance data collected weekly for a 5-year (2014-2018) from health facilities and private clinics that were archived in zonal PHEM database were reviewed. The checklist contained variety of variables was developed to collect data. Descriptive analysis was conducted to determine the proportion of Plasmodium species, positivity rate, mortality and fatality rate, time trend, and admission status; and presented by text, tables and figures.

RESULTS: Of the total of 588,119 suspected malaria cases, 78,658 (43/1000 populations) were positive with average positivity rate of 13.4%. Among confirmed cases, 59,794 (75%) of cases were attributed to Plasmodium falciparum, 16,518 (20%) were Plasmodium vivax, and 2,360 (5%) were mixed infections. The maximum (145,091) and minimum (74,420) transmissions were reported in 2014 and 2018, respectively. There was seasonal variation in transmission; spring (from May to July) and also autumn seasons (from October to November) were found as malaria transmission peaks. Although incidence rate declined throughout the study period, the average annual incidence rate was 14.38 per 1000 populations. The average case fatality rate of 5 consecutive years was 12/78,658 (15/100,000) population.

CONCLUSION: Although the malaria prevalence was decreased, the mortality due to malaria was increased in the 5-year study period, and malaria is still among the major public health problems. The dominant species of malaria parasites were P. falciparum and P. vivax. Attention is needed in scaling-up vector control tools in high malaria transmission periods.