A multiparametric risk table for loss of clinical remission status in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: A starter study post-hoc analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This post-hoc analysis was carried out on data acquired in the longitudinal Sonographic Tenosynovitis/arthritis Assessment in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients in Remission (STARTER) study. Its primary aim was to determine the predictive clinical and MSUS features factors for disease flare in RA patients in clinical remission, whilst its secondary aim was to evaluate the probability of disease flare based on clinical and MSUS features.

METHODS: The analysis included a total of 389 RA patients in DAS28-defined remission. All patients underwent a MSUS examination according to OMERACT guidelines. Logistic regression and results presented as OR and 95%CI were used for the evaluation of the association between selected variables and disease flare. Significant clinical and MSUS features were incorporated into a risk table to predict disease flare within 12 months in RA remission patients.

RESULTS: Within 12 months, 137(35%) RA patients experienced a disease flare. RA patients who experienced a flare disease differed from persistent remission for ACPA positivity (75.9%vs62.3%; p= 0.007), percentage of sustained clinical remission at baseline (44.1%vs68.5%; p= 0.001) and synovium PD signal presence (58.4%vs33.3%; p< 0.001). Based on these results, the three features were considered in a predictive model of disease flare with adjOR 3.064(95%CI 1.728-5.432). Finally, a risk table was constructed including the three significant predictive factors of disease flare within 12 months from the enrolment.

CONCLUSION: An adaptive flare prediction model tool, based on data available in outpatient setting, were developed as a multiparametric risk table. If confirmed by the external validation, this tool might support the definition of therapeutic strategies in RA patients in DAS28-defined remission status.