Predicting Contralateral Surgery for Trapeziometacarpal Arthrosis Within 5 Years.

PURPOSE: Symptomatic trapeziometacarpal (TMC) joint arthritis is a common cause of hand pain. It is unknown how many patients ultimately elect to have bilateral surgery for TMC arthritis. In this study, we assessed the frequency and predictive factors for contralateral TMC surgery in patients who underwent prior TMC surgery.

METHODS: We identified 712 patients who underwent primary surgery for TMC arthritis with a follow-up period of 5 years. We collected demographic, surgical, and follow-up data. Prediction models for contralateral surgery using a training and testing data set were created with multivariable logistic regression and random forest classifier algorithms.

RESULTS: At the time of initial surgery, 230 patients had bilateral thumb pain (32%), but only 153 patients ultimately had an operation for TMC arthritis on the contralateral side within 5 years (21% of 712 total patients and 67% of 230 patients with bilateral pain). Common predictive factors between both models for contralateral surgery were younger age (odds ratio [OR] = 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-0.98), bilateral thumb pain (OR = 3.76; 95% CI, 2.52-5.65), and anxiety disorders (OR = 1.84; 95% CI, 1.11-3.03).

CONCLUSIONS: In our study, we found that the rate of contralateral surgery was 21% in patients who underwent prior TMC surgery. Predictive factors for future contralateral surgery included younger age, bilateral thumb pain, and anxiety disorder at the time of initial surgery.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic II.