Construction of a Multi-Indicator Model for Abscess Prediction in Granulomatous Lobular Mastitis Using Inflammatory Indicators.

BACKGROUND: Granulomatous lobular mastitis (GLM) is a chronic inflammatory breast disease, and abscess formation is a common complication of GLM. The process of abscess formation is accompanied by changes in multiple inflammatory markers. The present study aimed to construct a diagnosis model for the early of GLM abscess formation based on multiple inflammatory parameters.

METHODS: Based on the presence or absence of abscess formation on breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), 126 patients with GLM were categorised into an abscess group (85 patients) and a non-abscess group (41 patients). Demographic characteristics and the related laboratory results for the 9 inflammatory markers were collected. Logistics univariate analysis and collinearity test were used for selecting independent variables. A regression model to predict abscess formation was constructed using Logistics multivariate analysis.

RESULTS: The univariate and multivariate analysis showed that the N, ESR, IL-4, IL-10 and INF-α were independent diagnostic factors of abscess formation in GLM ( P <0. 05). The nomogram was drawn on the basis of the logistics regression model. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.890, which was significantly better than that of a single indicator and the sensitivity and specificity of the model were high (81.2% and 85.40%, respectively). These results predicted by the model were highly consistent with the actual diagnostic results. The results of this calibration curve indicated that the model had a good value and stability in predicting abscess formation in GLM. The decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated a satisfactory positive net benefit of the model.

CONCLUSION: A predictive model for abscess formation in GLM based on inflammatory markers was constructed in our study, which may provide a new strategy for early diagnosis and treatment of the abscess stage of GLM.