Nomogram for predicting the overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with intraductal carcinoma of the prostate.

PURPOSE: Intraductal carcinoma of the prostate (IDC-P) is a histological subtype that differs from conventional acinar adenocarcinoma in terms of its origin, appearance, and pathological features. For IDC-P, there is currently no recognized best course of action, and its prognosis is unclear. The goal of this study is to analyze independent prognostic factors in IDC-P patients and to develop and validate a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS).

METHODS: Clinical data for IDC-P patients were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. To identify the independent variables influencing prognosis, multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed. A nomogram model was created utilizing these variables after comparing the variations in OS and CSS among various subgroups using Kaplan‒Meier curves. Internal validation of the nomograms was verified using the bootstrap resampling method.

RESULTS: The study included 280 IDC-P patients in total. Marital status, summary stage, grade, and the presence of lung metastases were significant factors impacting OS, and CSS was significantly influenced by marital status, summary stage, AJCC stage, the presence of lung metastases, the presence of bone metastases, and PSA according to univariate and multivariate Cox regression models (P < 0.05). Nomogram models were created to estimate OS and CSS using these parameters. The OS prediction model's C-index was 0.744, whereas the CSS prediction model's C-index was 0.831.

CONCLUSION: We developed and verified nomogram models for the prediction of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS in patients with IDC-P. These nomograms serve as a resource for evaluating patient prognosis, therapy, and diagnosis, ultimately improving clinical decision-making accuracy.