Exposure to PM 2.5 and its five constituents is associated with the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a prospective cohort study in northwest China.

Studies have demonstrated that fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) is an underlying risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but evidence exploring the relationship between PM2.5 chemical components and T2DM was extremely limited, to investigate the effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and its five constituents (sulfate [SO4 2- ], nitrate [NO3 - ], ammonium [NH4 + ]), organic matter [OM] and black carbon [BC]) on incidence of T2DM. Based on the "Jinchang Cohort" platform, a total of 19,884 participants were selected for analysis. Daily average concentrations of pollutants were gained from Tracking Air Pollution in China (TAP). Cox proportional hazards regression models were utilized to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) in single-pollutant models, restricted cubic splines functions were used to examine the dose-response relationships, and quantile g-computation (QgC) was applied to evaluate the combined effect of PM2.5 compositions on T2DM. Stratification analysis was also considered. A total of 791 developed new cases of T2DM were observed during a follow-up period of 45254.16 person-years. The concentrations of PM2.5 , NO3 - , NH4 + , OM and BC were significantly associated with incidence of T2DM (P-trend < 0.05), with the HRs in the highest quartiles of 2.16 (95% CI 1.79, 2.62), 1.43 (95% CI 1.16, 1.75), 1.75 (95% CI 1.45, 2.11), 1.31 (95% CI 1.08, 1.59) and 1.79 (95% CI 1.46, 2.21), respectively. Findings of QgC model showed a noticeably positive joint effect of one quartile increase in PM2.5 constituents on increased T2DM morbidity (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09, 1.49), and BC (32.7%) contributed the most to the overall effect. The drinkers, workers and subjects with hypertension, obesity, higher physical activity, and lower education and income were generally more susceptible to PM2.5 components hazards. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 and its components (i.e., NO3 - , NH4 + , OM, BC) was positively correlated with T2DM incidence. Moreover, BC may be the most responsible for the association between PM2.5 constituents and T2DM. In the future, more epidemiological and experimental studies are needed to identify the link and potential biological mechanisms.